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The House Republican blueprint endorsed by Speaker Paul Ryan envisions a 20 percent "border-adjusted" corporate tax rate that applies to domestic sales and imports, while exempting exports. Trump has floated a corporate tax rate as low as 15 percent, without specifying how or if the cost of doing so would be offset by other changes. So far, no action has been taken in Congress. Representative Kevin Brady of Texas, a Ryan ally who chairs the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee, reiterated on Thursday his commitment to action on a bill this spring, while key Senate Republicans, including Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch, have questioned on the prospects of passing permanent tax changes without Democratic support. Any cut to the tax rate could sap demand for tax-exempt securities from businesses. While highly rated 10-year municipals would still provide a better after-tax yield than comparable corporate debt if the rate were cut to 25 percent, that wouldnt be the case if it were reduced to 20 percent, according to Matt Caggiano, who helps oversee more than $9 billion of municipals from insurance companies at Deutsche Bank AG . For banks,their sweet spot are bonds due in 15 to 20 years, which otherwise have no natural buyers since retail investors prefer shorter maturities, said Foux, the Barclays analyst. Should banks scale back their purchases, that part of the curve would be most affected. Insurers also gravitate toward longer-dated bonds. Property and casualty insurers have already started selling some securities and letting others mature without replacing them, said Foux and Caggiano. Your cheat sheet on life, in one weekly email. Get our weekly Game Plan newsletter. Sign Up Some municipal bonds are already trading above comparable Treasuries, despite the tax breaks. During the broad fixed-income selloff that followed Trumps election, the yields on 10-year benchmark tax-exempt debt jumped to as high as 108 percent of Treasuries, indicating that the price of municipals was cheap by comparison. While that has since declined, benchmark municipal bonds maturing in 13 years or more still yield more than U.S. government debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Buying 15-year triple-A munis at almost 110 percent of Treasuries seem like a pretty good deal unless you believe taxes are going to zero, saidJames Iselin, head of the municipal fixed income team in New York at Neuberger Berman, which oversees about $10 billion in munis. For investors concerned about the uncertainty ahead, seven- to 15-year maturities are attractive, said Deutsches Caggiano.
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